本设备共 15 个失效模式(FM),其中 3 个为高风险(S≥8 或 O≥8)。 主导风险来自「内部故障产气(匝间/饼间短路,DGA 异常)」(S=8, O=3, AP=低)。 主要失效机理:热点温度超过 IEC 60076-7 热老化模型阈值,纤维素绝缘聚合度 DP 下降、匝间介电强度降低, 局部过热或放电使油/纸裂解产气(H2/CH4/C2H2 等),DGA 特征异常指示内部潜伏故障, 套管外绝缘污秽受潮沿面闪络。 RCM 维修决策以 CBM 为主(CBM 9 / PM 6 / RTF 0)。 建议优先对高风险 FM 安排 RBI 定点测厚与在线监测复核;含合金部件须执行 PMI 抽检;缺陷按 API 579-1 FFS 闭环。This equipment has 15 failure modes (FM), of which 3 are high-risk (S≥8 or O≥8). The dominant risk is '内部故障产气(匝间/饼间短路,DGA 异常)' (S=8, O=3, AP=低). Main failure mechanisms: 热点温度超过 IEC 60076-7 热老化模型阈值,纤维素绝缘聚合度 DP 下降、匝间介电强度降低, 局部过热或放电使油/纸裂解产气(H2/CH4/C2H2 等),DGA 特征异常指示内部潜伏故障, 套管外绝缘污秽受潮沿面闪络. RCM maintenance decisions are dominated by CBM (CBM 9 / PM 6 / RTF 0). Recommendation: prioritize RBI spot thickness measurement and online-monitoring review for high-risk FMs; perform PMI sampling on alloy components; close defects per API 579-1 FFS.
由结构化 KB 数据合成(compose,非大模型实时推理);所有结论可在下方章节溯源,参数仍为合成/工程估计。Synthesized from structured KB data (compose, not real-time LLM inference); all conclusions traceable in the sections below; parameters remain synthetic / engineering estimates.
| 材质Material | |
| 介质Service Fluid | |
| 设计温度/压力Design T/P | — ℃ / — MPa |
| 名义壁厚/最小允许Nominal/Min WT | — / — mm |
| 上次检验Last Inspection | |
| 损伤机理Damage Mechanisms | |
| 后果类型Consequence Type | |
| 检验有效性Inspection Effectiveness | |
| 置信度Confidence | |
| 腐蚀速率(估)Corrosion Rate (est.) |
| FMFM | SS | OO | DD | APAP | 后果Consequence | 机理Mechanism | 证据Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 内部故障产气(匝间/饼间短路,DGA 异常) ▸ 展开▸ expand | 8 | 3 | 2 | 低 | Operational,Safety | 局部过热或放电使油/纸裂解产气(H2/CH4/C2H2 等),DGA 特征异常指示内部潜伏故障 | 3 |
| 绕组机械位移/变形(短路电动力) ▸ 展开▸ expand | 8 | 2 | 2 | 低 | Operational,Safety | 系统短路电动力使绕组轴向/辐向位移、垫块松动,匝间短路风险升高 | 2 |
| 突发短路耐受失败 ▸ 展开▸ expand | 8 | 1 | 2 | 低 | Operational,Safety | 系统短路电动力超过设计耐受能力,结构件失效、绕组变形 | 2 |
| 绕组绝缘热老化 ▸ 展开▸ expand | 7 | 3 | 3 | 低 | Operational,Safety | 热点温度超过 IEC 60076-7 热老化模型阈值,纤维素绝缘聚合度 DP 下降、匝间介电强度降低 | 3 |
| 套管闪络/渗漏 ▸ 展开▸ expand | 7 | 3 | 3 | 低 | Operational,Safety | 套管外绝缘污秽受潮沿面闪络;内部密封失效渗漏导致油位下降、绝缘距离不足 | 3 |
| 有载分接开关触头磨损/卡涩 ▸ 展开▸ expand | 6 | 4 | 3 | 中 | Operational | OLTC 切换电弧烧蚀触头,机械传动卡涩或过渡电阻断裂导致拒动/连动 | 3 |
| 冷却器/油泵/风扇失效 ▸ 展开▸ expand | 6 | 3 | 3 | 低 | Operational | 冷却器堵塞、油泵故障或风扇停转,散热不足致绕组热点温升超标 | 2 |
| 套管接线端/引线连接过热 ▸ 展开▸ expand | 6 | 3 | 4 | 低 | Operational,Safety | 端子紧固力矩不足或氧化,接触电阻增大、焦耳热致过热甚至熔焊 | 2 |
| 铁芯多点接地/过热 ▸ 展开▸ expand | 6 | 2 | 3 | 低 | Operational | 铁芯叠片间绝缘损坏形成环流多点接地,局部过热导致叠片烧熔 | 2 |
| 绝缘油劣化/受潮 ▸ 展开▸ expand | 5 | 3 | 4 | 低 | Operational | 油氧化酸值上升、吸潮致介损 tanδ 上升、击穿强度下降,加速绝缘老化 | 3 |
| 分接开关切换油室燃弧/爆裂 ▸ 展开▸ expand | 7 | 1 | 3 | 低 | Operational,Safety | 切换开关油室燃弧能量超限或防爆膜失效,引发油室压力骤升 | 2 |
| 温度指示/保护误动拒动(WTI/OTI) ▸ 展开▸ expand | 5 | 3 | 4 | 低 | Operational,Safety | 绕组温度计 WTI/油温 OTI 传感器漂移或继电器故障,温度保护误动/拒动 | 2 |
| 瓦斯继电器误动/渗漏 ▸ 展开▸ expand | 5 | 3 | 4 | 低 | Operational | 轻瓦斯气体积聚或油流扰动误动;密封渗漏导致油位下降 | 2 |
| 储油柜/呼吸器堵塞 ▸ 展开▸ expand | 5 | 2 | 4 | 低 | Operational | 呼吸器硅胶饱和或管路堵塞,油柜不能正常呼吸,压力异常甚至密封破裂 | 2 |
| 异常噪声/振动(铁芯松动) ▸ 展开▸ expand | 4 | 3 | 4 | 低 | Operational | 铁芯夹紧件松动或叠片松动,电磁力引发异常振动噪声,长期致叠片疲劳 | 2 |
判定:Decision: exempt — 非承压金属/结构件,API RP 578 范围外
| 工单号WO ID | 类型Type | 描述Description | 周期(月)Interval (mo) | 成本cp(元)Cost cp (¥) | 成本cf(元)Cost cf (¥) | 预期风险削减Exp. Risk Reduc. | 成本来源Cost Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITPM-TX-101-C07 | CBM | 状态监测/点检(绝缘油劣化/受潮) | 5000 | 180000 | 9.5% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-C01 | CBM | 状态监测/点检(绕组绝缘热老化) | 20000 | 700000 | 11.3% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-C13 | CBM | 状态监测/点检(突发短路耐受失败) | 20000 | 900000 | 3.9% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-R03 | CBM | 基于状态(On-Condition)工单(派生):突发短路耐受失败 | 20000 | 900000 | 3.9% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-C09 | CBM | 状态监测/点检(绕组机械位移/变形(短路电动力)) | 15000 | 700000 | 5.8% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-R02 | CBM | 基于状态(On-Condition)工单(派生):绕组机械位移/变形(短路电动力) | 15000 | 700000 | 5.8% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-C02 | CBM | 状态监测/点检(内部故障产气(匝间/饼间短路,DGA 异常)) | 15000 | 700000 | 4.9% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-R01 | CBM | 基于状态(On-Condition)工单(派生):内部故障产气(匝间/饼间短路,DGA 异常) | 15000 | 700000 | 4.9% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-C11 | CBM | 状态监测/点检(温度指示/保护误动拒动(WTI/OTI)) | 3000 | 110000 | 3.9% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-C08 | CBM | 状态监测/点检(分接开关切换油室燃弧/爆裂) | 8000 | 450000 | 2.0% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-C12 | CBM | 状态监测/点检(瓦斯继电器误动/渗漏) | 3000 | 130000 | 3.9% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-C04 | CBM | 状态监测/点检(有载分接开关触头磨损/卡涩) | 8000 | 350000 | 7.7% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-C06 | CBM | 状态监测/点检(铁芯多点接地/过热) | 8000 | 450000 | 3.0% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-C10 | CBM | 状态监测/点检(储油柜/呼吸器堵塞) | 3000 | 140000 | 3.0% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-C05 | CBM | 状态监测/点检(冷却器/油泵/风扇失效) | 6000 | 270000 | 5.8% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-C14 | CBM | 状态监测/点检(异常噪声/振动(铁芯松动)) | 4000 | 200000 | 3.9% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-C03 | CBM | 状态监测/点检(套管闪络/渗漏) | 10000 | 450000 | 3.9% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-C15 | CBM | 状态监测/点检(套管接线端/引线连接过热) | 5000 | 220000 | 4.9% | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P16 | PM | 热点温度/顶层油温监测 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P17 | PM | 负载管理 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P18 | PM | 糠醛/DGA 趋势 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P19 | PM | 在线 DGA 监测 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P20 | PM | 三比值法诊断 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P21 | PM | 油色谱定期化验 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P22 | PM | 套管红外/紫外电晕检测 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P23 | PM | 油位与密封检查 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P24 | PM | 污秽清洗 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P25 | PM | OLTC 油色谱/过渡电阻监测 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P26 | PM | 动作次数管理 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P27 | PM | 吊芯检修 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P28 | PM | 冷却器流量/温度监测 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P29 | PM | 油泵振动 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P30 | PM | 风机巡检 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P31 | PM | 铁芯接地电流监测 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P32 | PM | 油色谱监控 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P33 | PM | 油中水分/介损/击穿电压测试 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P34 | PM | 油处理/滤油 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P35 | PM | 切换油室压力/产气监测 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P36 | PM | OLTC 维护 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P37 | PM | 短路承受能力评估 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P38 | PM | 绕组频响 FRA 测试 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P39 | PM | 阻抗监测 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P40 | PM | 呼吸器硅胶更换 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P41 | PM | 油柜压力/油位检查 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P42 | PM | 温度指示比对/校准 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P43 | PM | 保护定值测试 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P44 | PM | 瓦斯继电器排气/校验 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P45 | PM | 密封检查 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P46 | PM | 系统短路电流核算 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P47 | PM | 耐受能力评估 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P48 | PM | 振动/噪声频谱监测 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P49 | PM | 夹紧件紧固检查 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P50 | PM | 红外测温/接触电阻测试 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template | |
| ITPM-TX-101-P51 | PM | 端子紧固力矩管理 | 12 | 0 | — | prior-template |
成本取自 crq 参数(cp=检验成本,cf=失效纠正成本),预期风险削减为不执行该工单的年度失效概率上限近似。当前 crq 未标实测来源,统一标注 prior-template(非装置实测成本);实测数据经 ingest_measured 审批并入后转 posterior,削减值将升级为风险成本率精算(goal_planning._cost_rate_at)。Costs are drawn from crq parameters (cp = inspection cost, cf = failure correction cost); expected risk reduction approximates the upper bound of annual failure probability if the work order is not executed. Current crq has no measured source, uniformly tagged prior-template (not as-found plant cost); once measured data is approved and ingested via ingest_measured it switches to posterior, and the reduction upgrades to a risk-cost-rate actuarial value (goal_planning._cost_rate_at).
本设备 15/15 个 FM 已落 RCM 维修决策;分布:15/15 FMs have RCM decisions; distribution: CBM 9 PM 6 工程推导eng. infer
| FMFM | 决策Decision | 策略Strategy | 推荐任务Task | 间隔Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 内部故障产气(匝间/饼间短路,DGA 异常) | PM | 主动维修(Scheduled) | 绝缘/电气试验 + 继电保护定值校核 + 操动机构特性测试; 温度/红外热成像监测, 超温报警与根因排查 | 高风险 1-3 月 / 中风险 6-12 月 / 低风险 检修期 (按 RBI 风险定级) |
| 绕组机械位移/变形(短路电动力) | CBM | 视情维修(On-Condition) | 绝缘/电气试验 + 继电保护定值校核 + 操动机构特性测试; 沉降/变形观测 + 支撑/基础评估 | 高风险 1-3 月 / 中风险 6-12 月 / 低风险 检修期 (按 RBI 风险定级) |
| 突发短路耐受失败 | CBM | 视情维修(On-Condition) | 绝缘/电气试验 + 继电保护定值校核 + 操动机构特性测试; 沉降/变形观测 + 支撑/基础评估; 无损检测(UT/VT/MT/PT), 按 API 581 RBI 风险定级设定检验间隔 | 高风险 1-3 月 / 中风险 6-12 月 / 低风险 检修期 (按 RBI 风险定级) |
ITPM 总工单 54 张,RCM 派生 0 张;KB→工单闭环已建立,供 CMMS/SAP 消费。所有决策均属工程推导(非实测台账),执行前须经设备主管确认。Total 54 ITPM work orders, 0 RCM-derived; KB→work-order closed loop established for CMMS/SAP consumption. All decisions are engineering inference (not measured field data), subject to equipment-owner confirmation before execution.
| MIQA 状态MIQA Status | |
| 完整性等级Integrity Level | None / 5 |
| 上次全面检验Last Full Inspection | |
| 下次检验到期Next Inspection Due | |
| MOC 关联MOC Link |
存在 3 个高风险 FM,建议优先安排 RBI 定点测厚与在线监测复核;对含合金部件执行 PMI 抽检。缺陷按 API 579-1 FFS 闭环。There are 3 high-risk FMs; prioritize RBI spot thickness measurement and online-monitoring review; perform PMI sampling on alloy components. Close defects per API 579-1 FFS.